Grain markets are mixed in the early morning trade as the markets looks to catch their breath. These are the levels to keep an eye on for corn, soybean, and wheat futures.
Limited Time Discount Offer!
Get all of Blue Line Ag Hedge’s insights, alerts, recommendations, and more delivered to your inbox! Sign Up Now!
Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures posted their fourth consecutive day of gains but have failed to find any follow-through in the overnight and early morning trade as prices flutter around our resistance pocket near 440. We remain upbeat and think there is more upside potential in corn from these levels but would welcome a day of consolidation. Support comes in from 431 1/2-433 1/2. If the Bulls can chew through yesterday’s high, we could see an extension towards 447 1/2-450, which represents previously important price points and the 50-day moving average.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 440-442***, 447 1/2-450****
Pivot: 431 1/2-433 1/4
Support: 421-422***, 415-416***, 398-402**
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly Export Inspections: 1,121,912 metric tons (44,167,712 bushels). This was within the range of expectations and in line with last week’s inspections.
- Brazil’s second corn crop planting is nearing completion under what AgRural notes as favorable weather conditions.
Seasonal Tendencies & Fund Positioning
Seasonal Tendencies & Fund Positioning Update: Corn – Blue Line Ag Hedge
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures made new highs for the move in yesterday’s trade but retreated into the afternoon. All in all, there was no technical damage done and the pullback looks healthy after what was a strong back half of last week’s trade. Previous resistance is now support; we see that coming in from. If the Bulls can continue to defend this pocket, we could continue to see short covering propel prices up towards the technically and psychologically significant $12.00 level.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1184**, 1198-1205 1/2***
Pivot: 1166-1171
Support: 1125-1130**
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly Export Inspections: 706,334 metric tons (25,953,324 bushels). This was near the lower end of expectations and well below the 1,160,392 we saw in last week’s report.
- Harvest in Brazil is estimated to be nearly 60% complete.
Seasonal Tendencies & Fund Positioning
We took a deeper dive into seasonal tendencies and Fund positioning for soybeans in a weekend article we titled: The Big Short – Blue Line Ag Hedge
Wheat
Technicals (May)
May Chicago wheat futures made new lows yesterday but reversed sharply to finish the day back near our pivot pocket from 550-555. This reversal came after another announcement of an export cancellation from China, which in hindsight may have been a trade the rumor, fade the news type of event. If the Bulls can close above our pivot pocket we could see further relief take prices back to retest the 20-day moving average and trendline resistance from 563-570.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 563-570***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 525**
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly Export Inspections: 402,874 metric tons (14,803,081 bushels). Right smack dab in the middle of expectations and a hair more than what we saw last week.
- Cancellation of Export Sales to China: Private exporters reported the cancellations of sales of 264,000 metric tons (9,700,336 bushels) of soft red winter wheat for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year. This was the third straight day of cancellations which brings the 3-day total to 504,000 metric tons (18,518,824 bushels).
Seasonal Tendencies and Fund Positioning
We took a closer look at shorter and longer term seasonal trends for Chicago wheat futures as well as examined the Fund positioning of Funds. Check it out by clicking the link below:
A Closer Look at the Wheat Market – Blue Line Ag Hedge
Limited Time Discount Offer!
Get all of Blue Line Ag Hedge’s insights, alerts, recommendations, and more delivered to your inbox! Sign Up Now!
Leave a Reply