Grain markets are mixed in the early morning trade with corn near unchanged, beans making new highs for the move, and wheat lower. These are the levels we will be watching closely in today’s trade.
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Corn
Technicals (May)
May corn futures continue to linger in our pivot pocket from 440-442. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, it’s likely we could see an extension towards 447 1/2-450. This pocket represents the 50-day moving average along with previously important price points like old support from January and the eventual breakdown point from February 7th. On the flipside, the 20-day moving average is working higher which will be viewed as support, that comes in at 436 1/4 this morning. Just below that is perhaps a more meaningful support pocket from 431 1/2-433 1/4 which represents a recent battleground area between the Bulls and the Bears. We put together a few different pieces on the corn market yesterday which make the case for a continued springtime rally. If you missed it, you can check it out here:
Is Corn Setup for a Springtime Rally? – Blue Line Ag Hedge
2 Minute Drill: Corn – Blue Line Ag Hedge
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 447 1/2-450****
Pivot: 440-442
Support: 431 1/2-433 1/4****, 421-422***
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30am CT. Expectations range from 800,000-1,400,000 metric tons.
- Yesterday’s weekly EIA report showed ethanol production at 1.024 million barrels per day, down about 3% from the previous week but 1% above the same period last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 25.782 million barrels, down 2.3% from the same period last year.
Seasonal Tendencies & Fund Positioning
Seasonal Tendencies & Fund Positioning Update: Corn – Blue Line Ag Hedge
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
Soybean futures, despite a little changed day, looked impressive yesterday. Beans were near the lows of the day at the 8:30 open and finished right near the highs of the day. That momentum is spilling into the overnight and early morning trade as prices make new highs for the move and are trading nearly 75 cents off the lows from the end of February. Much of the recent strength has come on the back of short covering after the market chewed through trendline resistance and the 20-day moving average. That has opened the door for a run into our next resistance pocket, which is being tested this morning, from 1198-1205 1/2.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1198-1205 1/2***, 1212 3/4-1216***
Pivot: 1184
Support: 1171-1175***, 1125-1130**
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30am CT. Expectations range from 250,000-800,000 metric tons.
Seasonal Tendencies & Fund Positioning
We took a deeper dive into seasonal tendencies and Fund positioning for soybeans in a weekend article we titled: The Big Short – Blue Line Ag Hedge
Wheat
Technicals (May)
May wheat futures struggled against resistance yet again in yesterday’s trade, keeping it intact from 550-555. A continued failure would keep the doors open for a potential retest of the recent lows near 525. With that said, if corn and beans can continue to crawl out of their hole, perhaps that would be a tailwind for wheat. Not super bullish when you have to rely on other markets to do the heavy lifting.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 563-570***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611**
Pivot: 550-555
Support: 525**
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly export sales will be out at 7:30am CT. Expectations hint towards net reductions following last week’s cancellations of roughly 500k metric tons.
Seasonal Tendencies and Fund Positioning
We took a closer look at shorter and longer term seasonal trends for Chicago wheat futures as well as examined the Fund positioning of Funds. Check it out by clicking the link below:
A Closer Look at the Wheat Market – Blue Line Ag Hedge
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